Variability Report · free · real data, 1928–2025, computed in your browser
Your plan, through every real starting year.
The Savings Rate Calculator gives the average-case answer. But nobody retires in an average market. This runs your income, savings rate and starting balance through every real starting year since 1928 — each with its own real returns and real inflation — and shows the whole range of what could happen.
rest in intermediate bonds
Every real starting year
Green = fastest, red = slowest, grey = hasn't finished yet (drawn at years saved so far, never guessed). Dashed line = what the average-case calculator said.
Chance you're financially independent within N years
A range for every savings rate
Fastest, median and slowest real starting year at each savings rate — with the average-case answer for comparison.
Every real timeline, drawn together
Portfolio as a share of your financial-independence number. Each line is one real starting year.
How this is calculated
For each starting year from 1928 to 2025 we simulate saving your income × savings rate every month into your chosen stock/bond mix, using that calendar year's actual . Everything is in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars with income held flat. You're "done" the first year-end your portfolio reaches annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate.
A starting year that hasn't reached the target by 2025 is unfinished: shown grey, excluded from fastest/median/slowest, and never extrapolated. The "chance within N years" only uses starting years whose outcome is known by year N, so recent starts can't bias it. At low savings rates many recent starts are unfinished, which makes the finished-only median a little optimistic.
This is a historical backtest, not a forecast — the future may be better or worse than any past period. Educational only, not personalized financial advice.